Today marks exactly one year since Donald Trump was elected president and upended the D.C. establishment.

And for the Dow industrials, that’s meant the largest post-Election Day gain since 1945 (more below on that). Hopes that Trump will bring in tax reforms have been a big driver, but signs that investor faith is wobbling a bit cropped up yesterday after a Washington Post report that Senate Republican leaders, due to announce their own plan, may postpone corporate tax cuts.

Financials pulled back, and the Russell 2000 RUT, -1.26% full of companies sensitive to the prospects of tax reform, slid 1.3%. (h/t to the Daily Shot for the charts.)

“Tax reform is still the markets base-case for early 2018, but we are now entering a period where it will be fairly painful for market participants, and of course, it means having the ability to cut through the noise,” says IG’s Chris Weston.

That brings us to our call of the day from Barclay’s Michael Gapen, who offers up a slightly less rosy view of the Trump tax plan.

If passed in its current form, he says the Tax Cut and Jobs Act will generate “a larger reduction in taxes for the corporate sector relative to the household sector” than he expected. Also, it skews more toward making cuts in taxes than “reform” — that is, cleaning up the tax code — he notes.

“This alters our view of the economic effects in two ways: Tax cuts tend to produce temporary effects, rather than permanent ones, and changes in corporate spending are likely to come with relatively longer lags,” says Gapen in a note to clients.

The Barclays chief U.S. economist says any supply-side improvement — investment in equipment, for example — from the Republican plan will be limited. The reasons: an aging U.S. economy, business spending not being that sensitive to changes in the cost of capital, and restrictive immigration and trade policies that limit productivity improvements.


Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-tax-reform-promises-why-its-time-for-investors-to-get-real-2017-11-08?dist=markets

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