Global economic growth will edge down to 3% in 2019 from 3.2% in 2018, according to the annual Top 10 Economic Predictions released by business information provider IHS Markit. While global growth will continue to decelerate, the economy will also become increasingly vulnerable to shocks.
“Policy mistakes remain the biggest threats to global growth in 2019 and beyond,” said IHS Markit Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh. “Simmering trade conflicts are dangerous, not because they have done damage so far – they haven’t – but because they could easily escalate. At the same time, the sell-off in equity and commodity markets, on top of the gradual removal of stimuli by some central banks, means that financial conditions worldwide are tightening. The good news is that the probability of a single policy event seriously hurting global growth in 2019 is still relatively low.”
The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a rate of at 2.5% in 2019, less than the 2.9% growth seen in 2018, but still indicative of solid economic fundamentals. The new year will see countervailing pressures on U.S. growth: on the downside, the rising dollar, tightening credit conditions and higher tariffs could still hurt growth; on the upside, low interest rates, fiscal stimulus and constrained oil prices bode well for the U.S. economy.
Read more: https://talkbusiness.net/2018/12/ihs-markit-top-10-economic-predictions-global-slowdown-ahead-in-2019-on-trade-threats/